Living scenarios for Australia as an adaptive system

Abstract

In thinking about a future that is both environmentally sustainable and socially equitable, two challenges are paramount. The first is to assess a multitude of possible pathways over coming decades, and especially their implications for environmental sustainability and social equity. The second is to find ways to negotiate a pathway, where negotiation implies both steering a path through uncertainties and obstacles, and also agreeing on a shared course in the face of differences in values and perceptions that are a hallmark of an open and pluralistic society.

Negotiating our future: living scenarios for Australia to 2050 is an exploration of both challenges. In this synthesis chapter we cover five themes: i) Australia as an adaptive system made up of interacting natural and human components; ii) the present state of the Australian system, to provide a brief survey of where we are now; iii) ways of thinking about the future, to distinguish between objective analysis and subjective statements of goals or aspirations and to analyse the idea of a safe operating space; iv) tools for navigating the future, including both quantitative models and scenarios; and v) the concept of living scenarios for Australia as an adaptive system, to consider how such scenarios might be developed and be useful in negotiating the future.

By living scenarios we mean shared, ongoing explorations of how the future might unfold, leading to evolving visions that are plausible (consistent with natural laws), acceptable (consistent with aspirations for human wellbeing) and workable (agreed to the extent necessary for action). Rather than being preordained and specified futures, living scenarios are maps of the future that can be reworked, adapted and, if necessary, transformed. Living scenarios allow for flexibility and ambiguity; of necessity, they are refashioned in response to changing circumstances. They reflect a rich diversity of opinions, values and aspirations, to identify envelopes of possibilities shaped by the intersection between aspirations and realities. They are tools for achieving an acceptably coherent vision of the future, and a set of pathways towards it. Hence the title of the book. Show more