Australia South Asia Research Centre Working Papers (ASARC)

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/1885/733738383

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Non-communicable diseases, affluance and gender
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2019-01) Yadav, Pratima; Kulkarni, Veena S.; Kulkarni, Vani S.; Gaiha, Raghav
The present study addresses the following questions: (i) whether the burden of noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) has shifted to the older men and women? (ii) whether the The analysis is based on the 60th and 71st rounds of the National Sample Survey (NSS) for 2004 and 2014. Even though we have relied on comparisons of prevalence and shares between men and women, some glaring disparities emerge. The growing menace of NCDs in a context of rapidly increasing old population calls for bold policy initiatives. Although such initiatives are not lacking, they are either underfunded or limited in coverage and uncoordinated. Whether the PMJAY, arguably the most ambitious social health insurance (SHI) programme ever launched anywhere in the world, is mere election rhetoric or a substantive scheme is hard to assess. Not just a drastic overhaul of the health system is emphasised but also behavioural changes in diets and life styles are recommended.
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Privatization and FDI: the Indian experience
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2007-01) Mohan, T. T. Ram
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The global financial crisis and short-run prospects for India
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2009-01) Jha, Raghbendra
This paper provides an overview of the impact of the global financial crisis (GFC) on the Indian economy. It identifies the channels through which the GFC has impacted the Indian economy and evaluates the stimulus packages that have been put in place by the government of India. Finally, the paper examines short run prospects for the Indian economy in light of the GFC and the economy's recent dynamism.
Open Access
Has India achieved its potential efficiency in merchandise exports?
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2020-04) Kelkar, Raghuvir; Kalirajan, Kaliappa
India transformed itself from an agricultural to a services economy skipping the intermediate industrial-manufacturing stage. It is argued that the industrial and manufacturing sectors got neglected and most of the human capital was concentrated in the services sector. Recently Varghese (2018), in his report submitted to the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade of the Commonwealth of Australia, remarked that till 2035 India will be in the list of top three economies and will be in Asia's top three trading partners for Australia. Accordingly, India needs to improve its performance of the manufacturing sector to realise the potential noted by Varghese and to make use of its demographic dividend. In this context, the research questions addressed in this paper are: What is the current efficiency level of India in exporting the merchandises What constraints does India have to overcome to improve its export efficiency; and Has the governance structure of the "majority government' played an effective role in rigorous opening up to improve its export efficiency. The empirical analysis will use the database of the World Bank, Reserve Bank of India archives, World Integrated Trade Solution (WITS hereafter), the Heritage Foundation data set, and Statista covering the period from 2001 to 2019. The results indicate that the gap between India's actual Merchandise exports and potential Merchandise exports is still quite large, around 20% on average. The empirical analysis has identified lack of human capital in the form of weak tertiary enrolment, lack of physical capital in the form of poor infrastructure along with lack of effective opening up of the economy for attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI hereafter), and a committed governance structure in the form of a "majority government' to implement policies effectively, as important factors to close the gap between the actual and potential exports.
Open Access
Time-series analyses of food commodity prices in Jharkhand (July 2019 - June 2020)
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2020-04) Kaicker, Nidhi; Gaiha, Raghav; Aggarwal, Radhika
Covid-19 pandemic in India has had a disastrous effect on the economy. There are sharp differences in the assessments of the impact on the agricultural sector. One of the main constraints is lack of detailed data. In an attempt to understand how food supply chains are impacted, we have undertaken detailed studies of three states: Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Meghalaya. Here the focus is on Jharkhand. An aspect of food supply chains is wholesale and retail food prices. We examine these in relation to pre-pandemic levels, the divergence between them and their time varying volatility. A set of time series models are estimated to throw light on prices of rice, potato, tomato and onion in one major market centre, Ranchi. Our analysis does not suggest food price stabilisation at the prepandemic level.
Open Access
Time-series analyses of food commodity prices in Meghalaya (July 2019 - June 2020)
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2020-03) Kaicker, Nidhi; Gaiha, Raghav; Aggarwal, Radhika
Meghalaya is a special case. The growth in the number of Covid-19 cases was very slow during all the lockdown phases. As on May 10, the total count of covid-19 cases in the state was 13, of which there was one death, two active cases and ten recoveries. Meghalaya did not see a second fatality due to the virus until July 7, and had reported a total of 89 cases by then. The state government extended night curfews and ban on inter-state movement of people till June 30. So unlike other states there was no pandemic. Using a long time -series of wholesale and retail prices of rice, potato, tomato and onion, covering the period year from 1st July 2019 to 30th June 2020, we use time series models to investigate co-movements between wholesale and retail prices over time and in three different market centres (Shillong, Jowai and Tura) and across theM. and time varying volatility. It is not surprising that the results are not so striking (unlike Maharashtra or Jharkhand), as Covid-19 never turned into a pandemic. However, supply and demand disruptions cannot be ruled out given the stringency of the lockdown and weak market integration.
Open Access
Time-series analyses of food commodity prices in Maharashtra (July 2019 - June 2020)
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2020-03) Kaicker, Nidhi; Gaiha, Raghav; Aggarwal, Radhika
The outbreak of Covid-19 in March and subsequent draconian lockdowns that resulted in disruption of supply of most commodities except "essential commodities and services", widespread closure of factories, marginal, small and medium enterprises, massive unemployment and return migration, and deceleration of economic growth are intensely debated. Even though agriculture's share of GDP has declined, it continues to be the largest employer in India. Analyses of the impact of the Covid pandemic on this sector-especially food supply chains-are still few and far between. Views range from resilience of this sector to substantial losses of output and livelihoods. Focusing on an important aspect of food supply chains in Maharashtra, which witnessed highest severity of the Covid pandemic, we conduct a detailed empirical analysis of movements of wholesale and retail food commodities' prices, the gaps between them (or the price wedge) and market integration in this state during July, 2019-June 2020. One section of this study is devoted to deterministic means and standard deviations that throw light on these movements during different phases of lockdowns. This in itself goes well beyond what we know from the extant literature. Another significant contribution is the time-series analyses of the food commodities' price series and price wedges in which the focus shifts to the stochastic process, with a structure that can be characterised and described. Some of the issues addressed are whether the wholesale and retail food prices are cointegrated, whether their wedges have narrowed, whether volatilities have accentuated and whether markets are spatially integrated. The insights are useful for policy purposes.
Open Access
India's response to COVID-19 crisis
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2020-03) Jha, Abhay Kumar; Jha, Raghbendra
The onset of the COVID-19 pandemic has presented India with complex economic and public health challenges. Furthermore, these two crises interact with each other in complex ways whence there is considerable uncertainty in designing a policy response. This paper purports to place India's experience with the corona virus in the international context and to examine the public health and economic challenges as well as prospects in a post-COVID world. The paper lists key dates in the development of this pandemic in India and globally. It then compares the development of the pandemic in India until 30 June, 2020 with that in some key countries. We then outline the economic and health strategy followed in India to combat the crisis. We also discuss some consequences of the pandemic and elements of India's recovery strategy. We also assess elements of India's recovery and prospects for the Indian economy. Finally the paper discusses prospects for the Indian economy in the short run.
Open Access
Challenges, opportunities and innovation in Indian rural economy
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2020-03) Pal, Soumya; Sharma, Deepti; Kumar, Durgit; Sombhatla, Harika
In this paper, long winding problems of agriculture sector in India has been elaborated with a focus on the core policies, structure, and exogenous factors such as climate change. The aim of the study is to highlight the existing inequalities amongst the farmers based on the land holding and a mixed bag of policy responses by the government. With a high intervening role of official agencies, poor pricing policy, input inaccessibility and low incentives for innovation, agriculture has remained by and large a risky and less profitable venture. In conclusion, a suggestion on minimalistic role for government agencies and decentralised farmers-oriented marketing model for price discovery has been emphasized which is based on the Gandhian philosophy of rural development.
Open Access
Effect of urbanization in India on the urban poor, MSME sector, and environment
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2020-03) Talanki, Ananya
In the 21st century, urbanization has become an integral part of all modern societies around the world. This dissertation analyzes the role of the industrial and economic policies in the social and economic advancement of citizens and what governments can do in their economic frameworks to alleviate any gaps. In many countries, their industrial policies, or lack thereof, don't always work in favor of the total population and put many small enterprises at an inherent disadvantage. Businesses in the MSME sector have an integral role in the Indian economy. With the increase of economies of scale, many large corporations have taken the opportunity to reduce their overhead costs, but smaller enterprises aren't able to reap the same benefits as they simply don't have the means to more capital in order to grow many basic economic structures and policies are the cause of such repression. Urbanization, similarly, has also had broad repercussions on the working class, the urban poor, businesses, and the environment. In many areas, urbanization has led to the gentrification and urban congestion in which people in lower socioeconomic statuses are further prevented from economically and socially advancing, resulting in a greater income and opportunity gap. In addition to causing increasing hardship to many middle-class citizens, urbanization also impacts the environment immensely with changes in air quality and pollution as well as increase the risk of major environmental hazards such as flash flooding.
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Interest rate subvention in Indian agriculture: A demand-side analysis and proposed alternatives
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2020-03) Agarwal, Anubhav; Kumar, Shubhangi
The migrant worker crisis engendered by the current lockdown in India is a strong reminder of the suboptimal policies that have left the rural economy underdeveloped. There is a pressing need to make agriculture economically viable, and the dependence of farm incomes on the harvest cycle, the requirement of large upfront investment in agricultural inputs, the dominance of informal moneylenders and the lower ability of small and marginal farmers to save necessitate sound agri-credit policies that enable easy availability of small-, medium-, and long- term institutional credit in rural areas. Institutionalisation is important in order to give farmers access to cheaper credit and reduce the possibility of exploitation by moneylenders even today approximately 30% of agricultural households borrow exclusively from non-institutional sources. Crop failure, loan defaults, and loan waivers remain central to the discussion on agri-credit policies. One scheme that seeks to tackle the objectives of institutionalisation, cheap credit and prevention of defaults is the interest subvention scheme (ISS). Unfortunately, while agri-credit policies in India have been extensively studied from the banks' perspective, a demand-side analysis remains under-studied. This has led to a mismatch between the present policy paradigm and the needs of the farmers, of which the ISS is poised to be a conspicuous example. It has not only failed to achieve its twin objectives of institutionalisation and incentivising prompt repayment, but, quite apart, also led to some unintended consequences such as diversion of funds towards arbitrage opportunities, the dominance of short-term production loans (as opposed to long term investment loans) in overall credit, and the likely disproportionate benefits to large farmers at the cost of small and marginal farmers. In this paper, we seek to explain how this may happen by creating a model that analyses the behaviour of a farmer in deciding whether to borrow from a formal or informal source. We find that the noninterest costs (transactions costs and losses incurred on account of delays in disbursal of credit) of borrowing from a formal source may be so high that they lead the farmer to borrow from an informal source, such as an APMC agent. The failure of the ISS can at least partly be attributed to the neglect of such demand-side factors. In light of this failure, we conclude it is more effective for the government to invest funds elsewhere in projects that would increase agricultural productivity and incomes in the long run. However, the provision of cheap formal credit is still important. We believe that a microfinance institution (MFI)-like lending mechanism, appropriately tailored to the needs of agriculture, may be best suited to achieving this aim. Drawing on the experience of various MFIs internationally and the existing literature, we outline best practices that reduce the costs of borrowing for farmers while also managing risks and liquidity for MFIs, thereby ensuring their viability.
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India's pharmaceutical industry: Global supply chain and governance in the post-COVID-19 world
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2020-02) Jha, Raghbendra; Sharma, Ashok
COVID-19 has halted the world with significant impacts on human lives and economies. Humanity is facing the biggest challenge since the Second World War. As the world grapples with this pandemic, questions are also being raised about China's role in the COVID-19 outbreak. The issues that are being debated include the current model of the supply chain and the need to diversify from China, global governance, and crisis management in the Post-COVID-19 world. In this context, this paper examines the significant role that India's pharmaceutical industry can play to establish India's rightful place among nations providing global leadership in the Post-COVID-19 world.
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Indira Awas Yojana and housing adequacy: an evaluation using propensity score matching
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2019-04) Sharma, Amarendra
Indira Awas Yojana (IAY) was a public housing assistance program of the Government of India with its primary purpose being the provision of housing to the homeless rural poor households. The efficacy of this program has not been rigorously evaluated in the literature and thus this paper is an attempt in that direction. This paper, by using IHDS-II, a nationally representative sample from India, and relying on the quasi-experimental technique of Propensity Score Matching, concludes that the IAY has been moderately successful in meeting its goals in term of housing characteristics such as pucca house, pit toilet, smokeless chulha, hand pump water but, it fails to reach its stated goals in terms of external housing adequacy such as the presence of excrement/human waste and stagnant water in the vicinity of house and the access to village health facility and electrification.
Open Access
Jati, local public goods and village governance: private actions and public outcomes
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2019-01) Jha, Raghbendra; Nagarajan, Hari K.; Tagat, Anirudh
This paper purports to understand whether voting along narrow parochial lines in socially and ethnically fragmented societies has measurable gains. Using data from rural India, we establish that identity based voting, driven by membership in social and informal networks, will lead to enhanced participation in welfare programs, which in turn leads to increased consumption growth. We also show that reducing agency costs does not necessarily remove the need for identity"?based voting, and that such voting behavior is a means for engaging in capture of public and private benefits by these groups. Some policy recommendations are also advanced.
Open Access
The FTA debate in Sri Lanka: rhetoric and reality
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2019-01) Athukorala, Prema-chandra; Silva, Dayaratna
The government of Sri Lanka has embraced free trade agreements (FTAs) as a key focus of the national trade and development strategy. This paper examines the rationale of this policy choice by analysing the trade outcomes of Sri Lanka's FTAs with India and Pakistan and the expected gains from the FTA recently signed with Singapore. The analysis is informed by the existing body of knowledge on the role of FTAs as an alternative to multilateral and unilateral liberalisation. There is strong evidence that trade gains from FTAs has been vastly exaggerated by the proponents in the Sri Lankan trade policy debate. FTAs are essentially preferential trade deals the actual trade effect of which is conditioned by the commodity coverage normally dictated by political considerations and lobby group pressure, and the "rules of origin' relating to the eligibility for the tariff concessions offered. Even then, potential trade gains depend crucially on supply-side reforms needed to improve the country's capability to reap gains from market opening and compatibility of its trade patterns with the partner countries. Therefore the failure of the process of multilateral trade liberation under the WTO does not make a valid case for a country giving priority to FTAs. The more effective and time-honoured alternative is to undertake its own (unilateral) trade reforms needed for effectively integrating the country in the global economy combined with appropriate supply-side reforms.
Open Access
Restricted and unrestricted fiscal grants and tax effort of Panchayats in India
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2019-01) Jha, Raghbendra; Nagarajan, Hari K.; Tagat, Anirudh
This paper examines the impact of restricted and unrestricted fiscal grants on tax effort of Panchayats using nationally-representative panel data on finances. We propose three pathways through which these impacts accrue: wages, profits, and incentives. In order to deal with the simultaneities of grants received and taxation, we estimate a system of equations simultaneously, where the first stage equations predict the grants. The results show that a wage impact on taxation exists, but is very small and, the productivity impact of grants on taxes is negligible. This means that incentives effects associated with the specifics of the intergovernmental fiscal system in the states is the main determinant of village taxation. Several policy conclusions are advanced.
Open Access
Workfare and vulnerability in rural India
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2019-01) Jha, Raghbendra; Kang, Woojin; Nagarajan, Hari K.; Tagat, Anirudh
Using a unique panel data for rural India for the periods 1999 and 2006 this paper models vulnerability to poverty in the context of local governance and the introduction of the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS). We quantify household vulnerability in rural India in 1999 and 2006, investigate the determinants of ex post poverty as well as ex ante vulnerability, assess the role of ex ante vulnerability on poverty shift during the sample periods (i.e. movement into/out of poverty) and finally, examine how the effects of the determinants of vulnerability vary at different points across the vulnerability distribution. We conclude that exposure to MGNREGS has reduced the incidence of poverty. Although chronic poverty is relatively small the high incidence of transient poverty underscores the importance of covariate and idiosyncratic shocks. Household vulnerability across the distribution of such vulnerability is also investigated. A number of factors affect such vulnerability across this distribution. In particular, this paper is the first to investigate the role of village governance in affecting household poverty and vulnerability.
Open Access
Why dowry deaths have risen in India?
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2018-01) Dang, Geetika; Kulkarni, Vani S.; Gaiha, Raghav
The present study builds on the extant literature on dowry deaths in India. We analyse the extent of rise of and reasons underlying dowry deaths between 2001-2016, using a nation-wide panel survey, supplemented by another analysis that focuses on a panel of two cross-sections for 2001 and 2011. A key hypothesis to explain the rise in dowry deaths is the marriage squeeze causing dowry inflation and deaths. Our analysis offers a robust confirmation, based on alternative measures of marriage squeeze. Other explanatory factors include state affluence, education of women, nature of state governance, convictions against dowry deaths, and an important Supreme Court judgment in 2010 that made it compulsory to establish prior harassment of a victim by the male spouse and his relatives arising from dowry. Glaring inefficiencies of the police and judiciary systems in registering dowry deaths and punishing the perpetrators are highlighted. Anti-dowry legislation is not to be judged by its intent but by its implementation. Besides, aggressive masculinity can't be curbed without addressing powerful influences of gender norms and systems of inequality. In brief, the challenges of curbing the growing menace of dowry deaths are many but effective solutions are few.
Open Access
Structural transformation in South Asia
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2018-01) Jha, Raghbendra; Afrin, Sadia
This paper models the evolution and determinants of the shares of agriculture, manufacturing and services to GDP for 4 South Asian countries (Bangladesh, India, Sri Lanka and Pakistan) for 55 years: 1960-2014. Determinants of these shares were classified into three broad categories "country fundamentals", "policy" and "decadal dummies. We find that with increase in GDP the share of services rises strongly whereas the share of manufacturing has a more tepid rise with GDP whereas the share of agriculture falls in most cases. Land per capita is positively associated with share of agriculture whereas arable land only weakly so. As capital and power rise the share of agriculture drops wherever it appears whereas FDI negatively influences the share of agriculture in one case. Share of manufacturing drops with rises in arable land, and rises with trade, capital and power. The share of services falls with land per capita and rises with power. Other influences are largely insignificant. The Kuznets model of structural transformation is supported to some extent.
Open Access
Agriculture-nutrition pathway in India
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2012-01) Gaiha, Raghav; Kaicker, Nidhi; Imai, Katsushi; Thapa, Ganesh
Our analysis illustrates one pathway between agriculture and nutrition through production of nutrients by crop and size as well as through livestock. As this pathway is subsumed in agriculture and nutrition studies focusing on anthropometric outcomes, and hardly any light is thrown on the contribution of smallholders, it is emphasised that they play an important role as producers of nutrients. Specifically, despite various disadvantages (e.g. inadequate access to extension, technology, credit and markets), they contribute largest shares of calories, protein and fats. However, profits earned (using an approximate measure) are considerably lower among them than among medium and large landholders. At least two reasons are identified in our analysis: one is limited access to markets and another is lower crop prices. A much greater emphasis on enabling higher investment, access to technology and markets through better rural infrastructure would help increase profitability of crop production. Equally important are market imperfections that manifest in lower crop prices for smallholders. How economies of scale could be exploited through farmers' groups needs careful scrutiny.

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