Other Publications by Crawford School of Public Policy

Permanent URI for this collectionhttps://hdl.handle.net/1885/733738388

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Illuminating the Local: Can Non-Formal Institutions be Complementary to Health System Development in Papua New Guinea?
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2012-01) McNee, A.
This paper offers a fresh insight into the performance and reform opportunities of the formal health system of Papua New Guinea. A central tenant of this paper is that the historically imposed and continuing top-down nature of the formal health system in PNG is not capitalizing on potentially positive incentives and motivations inherent in the broad range of non-formal institutions that frame the PNG health system. The paper suggests that an enhanced understanding of these non-formal institutions may provide clues for how the formal system could be reconfigured to better align with the non-formal. The opportunity offered by this approach is to leverage the energy, motivation and legitimacy inherent in non-formal institutions to better buttress or infuse the formal health system. The paper draws on an emerging body of development thinking that recognizes that development depends on institutions that are stable, fair, legitimate and flexible enough to reflect political pressures and that in turn, these kinds of institutions are the product of the interplay of formal and informal institutions. In particular, this theory argues it is when informal institutions are 'complementary' to formal institutions that institutions are likely to be most effective. In these situations informal institutions support the formal institution through 'filling in gaps' either by addressing contingencies not dealt with in the formal rules and/or by facilitating or creating incentives for individuals to pursue the goals of formal institutions. The paper analyses the PNG health system through the lens of this non-formal institutional framework. This analysis, based on secondary data, suggests: Historically, the formal PNG health system was introduced as part of the broader process of colonial administration which, in combination with a number of contemporary ideological forces, allowed little or no space for indigenous negotiation, contestation, or engagement on the form of the PNG health system, or the nature of care within that system. This legacy of top-down planning and delivery in the formal health services of PNG continues, in a modified form, to the present. There is a rich, vibrant matrix of local, intersecting non-formal institutions of relevance to health in PNG - non-formal institutions that are characterized by strong and deep engagement and contestation around health and illness issues. The formal health system is not optimally leveraging the motivation, energy and legitimacy inherent in these non-formal institutions. Some elements of the non-formal institutions in PNG that, prima facie would appear to be potentially complementary to health service development include: Local leadership keen to capitalize on the perceived 'modernizing' political benefits of western health services communities seeking to locate health workers, and health facilities more broadly, within local social relationships - relationships that coincide with understood social obligations space for local negotiation around appropriate level/form of user fees - with a considerable degree of intra-family subsidization, group based risk sharing, and exemptions for the poor a high degree of patient autonomy - with health seeking behavior influenced by a social understanding of the cause and appropriate treatment of illness a very strong tendency to locate ill-health in ruptured social relations - which require a range of collective actions to remedy the potential for the associational value of provider associations to provide a source of constraint on health worker behavior that is not evident from government a vibrant (if diverse) range of traditional health systems that remain common and valued healing resorts for many Papua New Guineans, and which have shown a relative degree of openness to western healing a rich tapestry of community and clan based organizations that are actively engaged in solving local collective action problems, including health improvement activities. The paper argues there is no blueprint for how an awareness of non-formal institutions could be incorporated into possible institutional re-design/reform of the PNG health system. However it does conclude with a number of general pointers to guide possible action. These include: The critical importance of looking beyond the facade of the formal organizational and institutional arrangements of the health sector to make visible the non-formal institutions that surround and shape the formal. The need for deeper and more meaningful structures of engagement/ involvement of the PNG populace in the form, financing, delivery and performance of the PNG health system. The need to understand better the scale, motivation and practices of local, village based private health resources. The opportunity to build more dispersed mechanisms of sector regulation - including community monitoring of services, and competition between providers based on reputation and accreditation. A more concentrated focus on how traditional and formal health services can co-exist and, over time, integrate to create new or 'hybrid' institutions. A possible larger role for provider associations as organizational actors in the planning, development, management and regulation of PNG health services than is currently the case.
Open Access
Australia's growth in households and house prices
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2018-02) Day, Creina
Real house prices rise in Australia amid growing concern of an impending correction. This paper explains why the household formation rate has risen with strong population growth due to higher net immigration and average household size levelling of due to population ageing. An intertemporal model is developed to analyse the effect of an increase in the household formation rate on the housing market. We find that real house prices rise over time if the rate of household formation outstrips the rate of housing supply. Under forward looking expectations, a rising household formation rate could explain rising real house prices relative to the present discounted value of future wages. The results explain why real house prices may exhibit an upward trend despite population ageing and how government planning could have an impact.
Open Access
Profitability, Productivity and the Efficiency of Grain Production with Climate Impacts: A Case Study of Western Australia
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2012-03) Che, N.; Kompas, T.; Xayavong, V.; Cook, D.
This paper analyses productivity, profitability and efficiency by climate zone for the WA grains industry over the past 30 years. More specifically, following the studies by the Department of Agriculture and Food of Western Australia (2011) and Che, et.al (2012), this paper uses the Trnqvist formula index to measure and analyse movements in inputs, outputs, climate conditions, Total Factor Productivity (TFP), and TFP adjusted by climate impacts for WA grains farms in six climate zones over the period 1980 to 2009-10. Estimates provide a stochastic production frontier and technical efficiency model for six rainfall zones (including the High Rainfall North and South zones the Medium Rainfall North and South zones and Low Rainfall North and South zones), which determine the relative importance of land, labour, capital, materials, fuel and energy inputs into wheat production and the effects of climate zone on farm efficiency. A construction of overall farm profiles in Medium Rainfall zones based on the efficiency rankings of grain farms is also generated.
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Changing population in Japan and a life-long active society to cope with it
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2015-02) Seike, Atsushi
Open Access
Where Have China's State Monopolies Gone?
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2015-04) Hubbard, Paul
If China's economy is an example of "?state-capitalism', then its large, state-owned enterprises (SOEs) could be expected to monopolise key sectors. But previous estimates of industrial concentration using the Herfindahl-Hirschman Index (HHI) have suggested that the level of industrial concentration - and therefore the potential for the abuse of monopoly power - is very low. These studies have significantly underestimated HHI, since they do not consolidate subsidiary enterprises in Chinese survey data into larger business groups, or according to ultimate ownership. After making these adjustments, a measure of potential HHI shows that large state monopolies remain in oil and gas, electricity, tobacco and, potentially, automobiles. In particular, SOEs supervised by the central government are heavily invested in potentially concentrated industries. But aggregate profits of the state sector are driven more by the portfolio distribution of assets between resources, manufacturing and utilities, rather than industrial concentration within sectors.
Open Access
Determinants of Labor-intensive exports by the Developing Countries: A Cross Country Analysis
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2012-03) Khondoker, Mottaleb; Kalirajan, Kaliappa
While it is widely recognized that industrial development is imperative in developing countries to reduce poverty and to attain sustainable economic growth, there is no consensus on how to develop industries and where to start. Generally, the literature argues that developing countries should concentrate on promoting labour intensive industries and exports first due to their low capital stock and relatively abundant labor force. Though many developing countries are attempting to follow this path, the interesting observation is that not all developing countries are reaping the benefits of promoting labor intensive industries in terms of employment generation and sustaining economic growth. This raises an important question as to how it is possible for some developing countries to enjoy more benefits from labor intensive industries, while others are not able to do so. Using cross-country panel data in explaining heterogeneous performance in exporting labor intensive products by the developing countries, an attempt has been made in this paper to identify the important factors over and above the conventional factors such as low labor wages that contribute to the sustained growth of labor intensive exports from developing countries. The empirical findings of this paper emphasizes that even to initiate and sustain the growth of the low value added industries, such as garments, the developing countries should develop basic infrastructure and maintain a friendly business environment.
Open Access
Economic growth, wellbeing and sustainability: measuring Australia's progress
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2015-02) van Halderen, Gemma; Baker, Joanne
Open Access
Long-term fiscal sustainability in advanced economies
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2015-02) Auerbach, Alan J.
This paper provides an evaluation of the long-term fiscal sustainability of advanced economies, based on current estimates of these economies' current-policy fiscal trajectories. As will be quite evident, for many countries short-term fiscal measures, such as the debt-GDP ratio and the current budget deficit as a share of GDP, bear little relationship to the sustainability of policy. Some countries appear to be on relatively sustainable paths despite challenging short-run statistics, while for others benign short-term measures mask very large long-term problems. Of course, the future is uncertain while the present is known, so one may be tempted to discount negative long-term projections. But, based as they are on a demographic transition that is surely underway, one can discount particular estimates but not their general direction.
Open Access
Take-off, Persistence, and Sustainability: The Demographic Factor of Chinese Growth
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2015-02) Fang, Cai; Yang, Lu
Open Access
A lesson in market contestability: calculating the cost of Chinese state intervention in iron ore price negotiations
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2015-02) Hurst, Luke
This article analyses the motivation and impact of the 2009 intervention of the China Iron and Steel Association (CISA) in benchmark price negotiations. The impact of the transition from benchmark pricing to a spot market mechanism, which was a consequence of the CISA's intervention, is examined using a constrained bilateral monopoly model to calculate the financial impact of switching pricing mechanisms on Australian exporters and Chinese importers.
Open Access
Bilateral and Regional Trade Agreements: Detangling the Noodle/Spaghetti Bowl
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2017-03) Gretton, Paul
Following the global financial crisis, economic growth and international trade growth have been sluggish. Current projections indicate that growth may continue to be sluggish in the medium term. These continuing trends will limit income raising productivity growth needed to maintain and improve living standards with population ageing across many economies. It will also limit capacities needed to raise living standards amongst lower income regions. Gaining public acceptance of productivity improving policies and the contribution that trade openness makes, however, is getting harder due to re-emerging national protectionist sentiments. This note looks at possible ways to improve trade policy formulation at the national, regional and global levels through evidence to bolster the case for greater openness and economic reform. Growth could be revived if G20 countries act to implement deeper and wider trade and economic reforms, and avoid policies that limit productivity growth prospects.
Open Access
Report on 2015 China Council for the Promotion of International Trade (CCPIT) Survey Results: An Australian Perspective
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2017-01) Li, Jingyi
To better understand the current status as well as future prospects of Chinese ODI, CCPIT conducted an online survey in 2015 among its member companies. The survey comprised different sections for both current and potential investors, including questions regarding their ODI performances and intentions, destination choices and industry preferences. This paper will analyse the 309 responses that were collected from the CCPIT survey. It will start by describing the characteristics of survey samples in terms of company size, ownership structure and industry sector. Findings regarding the current ODI status will also be discussed, along with what member companies consider to be their ODI's driving factors and obstacles. This paper will then look to the future, examining member companies' intentions to invest overseas for the next three years as well as the most attractive sectors for investment as perceived by these companies. Finally, this paper will focus on investment issues that are specific to Australia.
Open Access
China-Australia Economic Cooperation and the Belt and Road Initiative
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2017-01) Drysdale, Peter; Zhang, Dong Dong
China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) relates to the overarching agenda for cooperation between Australia and China based on their shared interest in an open global economic system and reforms that promote the effectiveness of participation in the international market. These interests should guide the approach to regional and global cooperation. The BRI offers a framework for deepening cooperation through a process of open regionalism that promotes: policy cooperation on economic issues of importance to both countries||the exploration of priorities for investment to enhance connectivity||trade and direct investment||the deepening of financial links||and the expansion of people-to-people exchanges.
Open Access
The Future of China's Economic Transformation and India's Economic Strategies
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2016-04) Drysdale, Peter; Armstrong, Shiro; Hubbard, Paul; Thomas, Neil; Zhang, Dong Dong
China's large-scale structural transformation opens up huge opportunities for the development of the Indian economy through the shift in productive capacity across the region. China is in transition, from an investment- and export-led growth model to an economy based around consumption, services and innovation. This transition is both caused by and further contributing to rising Chinese incomes and Chinese firms moving up global value chains, two factors that are already driving the relocation of manufacturing activity from China to other more price-competitive countries in the region. This process will be further advanced through the gradual liberalisation of China's capital account. While China's commitment to, and thus the timing of, capital account policy changes are uncertain, the process is an inexorable product of the financial market liberalisation already in place. India can best take advantage of this situation by strengthening its own "?Make in India' economic reform agenda through liberalising labour laws, improving infrastructure investment and financing, opening to foreign investment, and pursuing regional economic integration. These measures will enable India to leverage its abundant and growing low-cost labour resources to exploit a comparative advantage in labour-intensive manufactures and services. This process has the potential to transform India into the next industrial superpower and the economic growth leader of the region.
Open Access
The Making and Implementation of the Belt and Road Policy
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2016-04) Zhang, Dong Dong
In a speech delivered at Nazarbayev University in Astana, Kazakhstan, on 7 September 2013, President Xi invited central Asian countries to work "?innovatively' with China to build a "?Silk Road Economic Belt' (SREB, or the Belt) for close economic ties, cooperation and joint development to benefit people across the land of Eurasia. In his speech at the Indonesian Parliament on 3 October 2013, President Xi invited ASEAN countries to work with China to build a "?21st Century Maritime Silk Road' (MSR, or the Road) for achieving joint development and co-prosperity. These two proposals, put together, were the original "?One Belt, One Road initiative'.
Open Access
Efficient economic integration to facilitate global value chains
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2016-04) Elek, Andrew
Recent dramatic improvements in transport and communications, especially information technology, have transformed the nature of production and distribution. Most products are now "?made in the world', with firms in many economies adding value along international production networks, or global value chains, in line with their ever-evolving comparative advantage. The word "?trade' is no longer an adequate description of global commerce. The flow of goods passing along value chains is just one thread within intertwined flows of services, financing, people movement and information.
Open Access
Pakistan's Potential Trade and 'Behind the Border' Constraints
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2015-03) Miankhel, Adil Khan
Institutions are source of comparative advantage or disadvantage in international trade. Socio-economic and political constraints also matter for creating comparative advantage and affect the trade pattern of a country. These diverse "?beyond the border' and "?behind the border' constraints are often not fully captured in the literature on international trade and institutions. The existence of such institutional, socio-economic, and political constraints to Pakistani exports is empirically investigated in this paper through a cross-sectional analysis employing a trade Stochastic Frontier Gravity Model. Aggregate data for 2006-08 and 2009-11 show lower exports in the latter period. This is attributed to demand-suppressing effects emanating from the 2008 global financial crisis and supply-suppressing effects emanating from energy shortfalls and input constraints, due to floods, in Pakistan. The model estimation then demonstrates that behind the border constraints in Pakistan are statistically significant in explaining total exports during 2009-11. The estimation is also presented for four single-digit SIC categories of products for this period. Behind the border constraints are evident for SIC 0 (agriculture, forestry and fish products) and SIC 2 (manufactured products) that combined account for approximately 80 percent of Pakistan's exports. The estimation results by country further demonstrate that behind the border constraints affect the pattern of trade through the non-realization of bilateral trade potential. In the post-financial crisis era, Pakistan needs to further develop its institutional capacity to promote competitive exports given the explicit and implicit beyond the border trade barriers it faces and work to remove political obstacles to regional trade.
Open Access
Channelizing Afghanistan to Pakistan Informal Trade into Formal Channels
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2016-03) Miankhel, Adil Khan
Along with other routes, the Afghanistan-Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (APTTA) is being used by informal traders for smuggling goods into Pakistan. Despite enforcement measures, smuggling continues. Informal traders import goods into Afghanistan, and then route those goods back to Pakistan through informal channels to take advantage from the arbitrage opportunity provided by the differences in applied tariff/taxes between the two countries. Therefore, in addition to strict enforcement measures, the issue of informal trade needs to be handled through incentive measures.
Open Access
The Australia-China Commission: a Preliminary Proposal
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2016-03) Drysdale, Peter; Zhang, Xiaoqiang
In this paper we elaborate on a proposal for the establishment of an Australia-China Commission ("?the Commission') "? or the Aodaliya-Zhongguo Weiyuanhui (in Chinese) or, in short, the Ao-Zhong Commission "? recommended in the Australia-China Joint Economic Report, for which we were jointly responsible. We suggest that, given the unique nature of the relationship between Australia and China, this initiative would provide important infrastructure in husbanding and developing the relationship between Australia and China over the years ahead.
Open Access
Economic Growth in China and its potential impact on Australia-China bilateral trade
(Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University, 2015-03) Sheng, Yu
This paper uses the GTAP Static model to predict the potential impact of economic growth in China on bilateral trade between China and Australia in 2025, under three different scenarios representing the business-as-usual, the successful reform and the stagnation cases respectively. The results show that exports from Australia to China will continue to increase in both absolute and relative terms, irrespective of which economic growth path China takes, partly due to the strong complementary relationship of production between the two countries. The results also indicate that education service exports will become a new engine of bilateral trade in addition to agricultural and mineral products. Furthermore, comparing the results obtained from the three scenarios shows how successful reform will bring more benefits to both China and Australia in trade, which provides useful insights for policy making to facilitate bilateral economic relationship

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