Developing decision maker capabilities for robust and adaptive water planning

Abstract

Decision makers in long-term water planning face the challenge of navigating "deep" uncertainty. Overcoming this challenge by being robust and adaptive requires deployment of appropriate capabilities and development of supporting tools and processes. This challenge is central to this thesis investigating "how to build decision makers' capabilities for robust and adaptive water planning".

An interdisciplinary research (IDR) approach is used as a methodological framework, each chapter informing the next. A Dynamic Capabilities Project Design heuristic emerged organically throughout the thesis chapters, building on previously identified capabilities: 'absorptive capacity', 'creativity capability', 'agility capability' and 'resilience capability'. The approaches developed in the thesis are evaluated in terms of their contributions to deploying dynamic capabilities for robust and adaptive water planning.

Chapter 2 sets the scene for river basin models to inform water planning. The historical perspective revealed the co-evolution of these models with societal changes and set the stage for understanding future challenges. These challenges informed a list of capabilities necessary for robust and adaptive planning.

Chapter 3 focuses on augmenting predictive model capability for exploratory modelling uses. A Minimum Information Requirements (MIRs) approach is developed to augment model functionality and meet requirements of a robust and adaptive framework. The feasibility of MIRs was empirically validated for designing adaptive pathways using the Basin Futures software platform. MIRs appears valuable for rapid feedback early in the planning process, but additional mechanisms are needed to consider full user experience and support model uptake to inform planning.

Chapter 4 introduces the Critical Appraisal Approach (CAA) to improve model uptake by enhancing the inclusion of model users in model software development processes. The CAA is expected to deal with some challenges to include model users by fostering shared understanding, coordinating development and design activities, and delivering market-based innovations. While promising, further mechanisms are required to consider differing contexts, challenges and requirements across scales and align information from decision-support tools with decision-making processes.

Chapter 5 introduces a framework for operationalising scenario planning at finer and multiple scales (SPFMS). Developed by testing hypotheses regarding accounting for finer spatial and governance scales, SPFMS presents features suggesting potential contributions to polycentric governance systems, actionable decisions and dynamic capabilities for robust and adaptive water planning. However, the chapter emphasises the importance of considering institutional, societal and organisational contexts to assess their impact on the quality and proper use of outputs from decision-making processes to support robust and adaptive planning.

Chapter 6 employs a capability approach to diagnose contextual barriers to capabilities for robust and adaptive water planning. This chapter underscores the pivotal role of good governance in enabling polycentric governance systems, actionable decisions, and overall dynamic capabilities for robust and adaptive water planning.

The conclusion synthesises findings and describes the Dynamic Capabilities Project Design heuristic, derived from reflections on each chapter. Primary contributions of the thesis are 1) a set of tools and processes for managing deep uncertainty, and 2) a Dynamic Capabilities Project Design heuristic to couple and monitor complementary approaches for deploying capabilities for robust and adaptive planning. Show more