Estimating the impact of gubernatorial partisanship on policy settings and economic outcomes: a regression discontinuity approach
Date
2007-06
Authors
Leigh, Andrew
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University
Abstract
Using panel data from US states over the period 1941-2002, I measure the impact of
gubernatorial partisanship on a wide range of different policy settings and economic
outcomes. Across 32 measures, there are surprisingly few differences in policy settings,
social outcomes and economic outcomes under Democrat and Republican Governors. In
terms of policies, Democratic Governors tend to prefer slightly higher minimum wages.
Under Republican Governors, incarceration rates are higher, while welfare caseloads are
higher under Democratic Governors. In terms of social and economic outcomes,
Democratic Governors tend to preside over higher median post-tax income, lower posttax
inequality, and lower unemployment rates. However, for 26 of the 32 dependent
variables, gubernatorial partisanship does not have a statistically significant impact on
policy outcomes and social welfare. I find no evidence of gubernatorial partisan
differences in tax rates, welfare generosity, the number of government employees or their
salaries, state revenue, incarceration rates, execution rates, pre-tax incomes and
inequality, crime rates, suicide rates, and test scores. These results are robust to the use of
regression discontinuity estimation, to take account of the possibility of reverse causality.
Overall, it seems that Governors behave in a fairly non-ideological manner.
Description
Keywords
median voter theorem, partisanship, state government, taxation, expenditure, welfare, crime, growth
Citation
Source
European Journal of Political Economy
Type
Working/Technical Paper
Book Title
Entity type
Access Statement
Open Access
License Rights
DOI
10.1016/j.ejpoleco.2007.06.003