Weak Tests and Strong Conclusions: A Re-Analysis of Gun Deaths and the Australian Firearms Buyback
Date
2007-06
Authors
Neill, Christine
Leigh, Andrew
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), Research School of Social Sciences, The Australian National University
Abstract
Using time series analysis on data from 1979-2004, Baker and McPhedran (2006) argue
that the stricter gun laws introduced in the National Firearms Agreement (NFA) post-
1996 did not affect firearm homicide rates, and may not have had an impact on the rate of
gun suicide or accidental death by shooting. We revisit their analysis, and find that their
results are not robust to: (a) using a longer time series; or (b) using the log of the rate
rather than the level (to take account of the fact that the rate cannot fall below zero). We
also show that claims that the authors had allowed both for method substitution and for
underlying trends in suicide or homicide rates are misleading. The high variability in the
data and the fragility of the results with respect to different specifications suggest that
time series analysis cannot conclusively answer the question of whether the NFA led to
lower gun deaths. Drawing strong conclusions from simple time series analysis is not
warranted, but to the extent that this evidence points anywhere, it is towards the firearms
buyback reducing gun deaths.
Description
Keywords
firearms ownership, homicide, suicide
Citation
Source
Type
Working/Technical Paper
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Access Statement
Open Access