A study of judgements of relative likelihood
Date
1964
Authors
Cook, Michael Lewis
Journal Title
Journal ISSN
Volume Title
Publisher
Canberra, ACT : The Australian National University
Abstract
This thesis is a study of the behaviour of a person
using the terms 'likelihood', 'certainty','confidence',
etc (collectively referred to as 'likelihood judgements’),
in describing event s of uncertain outcome. The study is
a psychophysical one in that, given that people may be
observed to make statements involving these terms, consideration
is given to the way these statements are determined by characteristics of the outcome judged. In general, the question of the meaning of the terms to the subject, is avoided and no reference is made to other
forms of behaviour with respect to uncertain outcomes.
In the first place, the behaviour of a person judging
the likelihood of an isolated outcome is discussed.
Consideration is given to methods that have been employed
to 'scale' the judged likelihood of an outcome. Evidence
is considered that the value of an outcome on the judged
likelihood scale, is positively related to its mathematical
probability. Consideration is then given to the practice
of describing likelihood judgements in terms of 'psychological
probability'. It is suggested that this usage
is based on the practice in psychophysics, of describing
a stimulus dimension and its judgemental correlate, as
’objective’ and ‘subjective’ aspects of the same dimension.
In this case, psychological and mathematical probabilities
would be best regarded as incommensurable.
Consideration is then given to the behaviour of a
person when asked to judge which of two uncertain outcomes
is the more likely to occur. A number of terms and
concepts are introduced for the description of patterns of such judgements. Consideration is given to the
consequences of the occurrence of intransitivities in
relative likelihood judgements. Finally, experimental
evidence is reported, consistant with the conclusion
that, for at least some people, such intransitivities
do occur.
Description
Keywords
Citation
Collections
Source
Type
Thesis (Masters)
Book Title
Entity type
Access Statement
Restricted access
License Rights
Restricted until
2099-12-31
Downloads
File
Description