Te Waa of future mobilities: A model for Adaptation in Kiribati.

Abstract

Climate change presents profound and escalating risks for low-lying states, with Kiribati experiencing these pressures in particularly acute and profound ways. As sea level rise, coastal erosion, and saltwater intrusion intensify, the biophysical limits of in-situ adaptation are becoming increasingly evident, raising critical questions about the long-term viability of place-based resilience strategies. This context underscores the need for integrated, inclusive, innovative and transboundary approaches that extend beyond the scope of national adaptation planning. Among the emerging responses, labour mobility initiatives, most notably the Pacific Australia Labour Mobility (PALM) scheme, are gaining prominence as potential mechanisms for enhancing climate resilience, diversifying livelihood options, and expanding adaptive capacity for highly vulnerable populations. In the absence of robust international legal frameworks or dedicated climate protection mechanisms for communities facing displacement from sea level rise, this research examines how labour migration to Australia can function as a consequential form of climate adaptation for Kiribati. Although labour mobility is increasingly recognised for its adaptive potential, substantial knowledge gaps remain in understanding how such pathways operate within, and contribute to, the adaptive capacities of climate-exposed small island economies. This study addresses this gap by analysing labour migration not merely as an economic opportunity, but as a strategic, anticipatory adaptation mechanism embedded within broader socio-ecological resilience processes.

This thesis investigates the multi-faceted relationship between labour migration and climate adaptation, examining how both temporary and permanent forms of mobility, collectively referred to in this study as labour migration, can function as anticipatory, forward-looking responses to escalating climate threats. Central to this inquiry are questions about how labour migration can strengthen adaptive capacity and foster long-term resilience for communities on the front lines of the climate crisis. Employing Te Waa, the canoe, as a guiding metaphor for both research and migration, the study centres the lived experiences and voices of those most exposed to climate risks. It examines I-Kiribati perspectives on the value of labour migration as a climate adaptation strategy. Through this metaphorical vessel, the research co-creates knowledge that re-stories and re-journeys migration in an increasingly uncertain world. By foregrounding community agency and self-determined adaptation, the study offers nuanced insights into how labour mobility is increasingly perceived as a facilitator of both in-situ and ex-situ adaptation. It expands the understanding of labour migration's potential to alleviate pressure on frontline communities, reduce exposure to environmental stressors, and foster long-term resilience across social, economic, and cultural dimensions, grounded in the lived realities of I-Kiribati communities.

Motivated by Kiribati's Migration with Dignity policy and the imperative to challenge climate apathy and climate coloniality, this research embraces the philosophy that migration, when approached strategically and voluntarily, is not a failure of adaptation nor a sign of weakness. Rather, it is a powerful act of resilience, an intentional and dignified choice that enables individuals and communities to navigate climate challenges with agency and foresight. Ultimately, this thesis contributes a spiritual and cultural lens to the evolving discourse on climate mobility, resilience, and climate justice. It affirms that migration is not merely a reactive measure, but a proactive, personal, and economic choice, one that empowers communities to confront the challenges of climate change with hope, dignity, autonomy.