Between Eagle and Dragon: Analyzing Indonesia’s Hedging Behavior under Joko Widodo Administration (2014-2024)

Abstract

This thesis investigates Indonesia's strategic behavior under President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) amid intensifying U.S.–China competition, using Kuik Cheng-Chwee’s hedging framework and Oriana Skylar Mastro’s alignment measurement. It argues that Indonesia’s foreign policy during Jokowi’s administration (2014-2024) exemplifies a hedging strategy, indicated by strong defense cooperation with the United States and robust economic engagement with China. Through qualitative analysis of key defense and economic policies between 2014 and 2024, this study demonstrates that Indonesia consistently maintains hedging with no significant change in pattern throughout both Jokowi’s terms. Despite increased Indonesia-China economic cooperation and closer maritime and defense ties with the U.S., Indonesia refrains from making binding commitments such as an alliance treaty or falling into major powers’ sphere of influence that would compromise its autonomy. It concludes that Jokowi’s Indonesia has institutionalized hedging as a pragmatic and adaptive foreign policy response, reflecting both the opportunities and constraints of maintaining strategic autonomy in an era of great power rivalry. Ultimately, this research contributes to the empirical findings of Indonesia’s contemporary foreign policy research and highlights Indonesia’s agency in navigating major power competition.