Doing Good or Looking Good? The Impact of Geopolitical Competition on Australia's Aid Performance in the Pacific

Abstract

In the shadow of a “new Cold War” between China and the West, heightened geopolitical competition is being observed worldwide. This thesis investigates how such tension has manifested itself through the mechanism of aid, focusing on the case of Australia and China in the world’s most aid-dependent region, the Pacific. Using multiple regression analysis, this study examines whether geopolitical competition helps explain a phenomenon whereby aid in the region seemingly and inexplicably underperforms. Surprisingly, results suggest that projects delivered to Pacific Island countries that are more geopolitically important to Australia reportedly perform better. However, further analysis indicates that this is possibly due to biased performance assessments rather than actual improvements. Additionally, evidence of a “political turn” in the thinking and motives of the Australian aid program underscores concerns about the extent to which aid in the Pacific is genuinely “doing good” versus merely “looking good”. The study offers new insights into the factors influencing aid performance and raises concerns about the reliability of such assessments, especially when they concern recipients that are geopolitically important to a donor. Show more