A review of methods for assessing progress towards Closing the Gap: Final Report

Abstract

This report describes a review of the methods used by the Productivity Commission to assess progress towards targets under the National Agreement on Closing the Gap. The primary objectives of the study were to evaluate the current methodology used to track progress towards national targets, develop a framework for assessing the contributions of states and territories, and test the revised method and proposed approach using existing data. A significant finding of the report concerns the shortcomings in data used for assessing progress. These limitations relate to both the efficacy of the data for monitoring progress, as well as the cultural suitability of the data. The study highlights issues such as substantial data gaps, infrequent data collection and delayed reporting, which lead to outdated information being published, hampering effective monitoring and undermining accountability. Moreover, inconsistencies in data sources lead to substantial revisions in observed data, affecting the reliability of progress assessments. In addition to these key findings, the report suggests various improvements to the methodology of assessing progress, particularly regarding the confidence in these assessments. While these are important, they are considered secondary to the issues with data identified. Lastly, the report presents four options for assessing the adequacy of state and territory contributions to meeting national targets. We recommend a specific method which we believe is both most effective and most closely aligned with the principles of the National Agreement on Closing the Gap. This recommendation comes after assessing the performance of all four proposed options on jurisdictional data.