Peaceful Independence for Bougainville: In the Interests of the United Nations, United States, China, Australia, New Zealand, Papua New Guinea and the People of Bougainville?

Abstract

Bougainville suffered armed conflict between 1988 and 1998. It started with environmental devastation caused by a Rio Tinto mine. Transformative peacemaking by Bougainvilleans drew on Christian beliefs to forgive old enemies. When tentative peace negotiations started 30 years ago, an independence referendum was the key demand. This was finally agreed in a peace process sanctioned by the United Nations (UN). The referendum did not occur until 2019. Independence from Papua New Guinea was the choice of 98 per cent of voters. Five years on, despair lurches to disgust among a younger generation who fear their leaders allowed themselves to be ‘conned’. ‘Wannabe’ warlords is a risk from that younger generation. So is a foreign power buying votes for an elected Bougainville president who seizes control of a Bougainville military to establish an authoritarian military regime after a unilateral declaration of independence. The international community must dedicate more attention in 2024 and 2025 to a peace with democracy resolution. Risks arise from a referendum that defers final settlement for too long. The UN Security Council should see peaceful independence as an imperative. A lesson learned is that the UN must analyse problems caused by peace agreements that are seen as broken promises in the eyes of many of the world’s most oppressed survivors of war.