Alternative Net Migration Estimates for Australia: Exploding the Myth of a Rapid Increase in Numbers

Abstract

Record net overseas migration? Net overseas migration estimates published by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) indicate a very substantial increase in migration across the financial years from 1997/98 to 2002/03 (Table 1). The estimates for the most recent year have been described in the media as ‘a new record level’ for Australian migration. Respected journalist, Ross Gittens, writing in the Sydney Morning Herald (August 20, 2003) stated: ‘far from falling, net migration has been on an upward trend since the Howard Government’s first year in office, 1996/97. In 2000/01 it reached a peak of 136,000 — its highest level in 12 years’. He extols the Prime Minister for being able to bring about a huge increase in migration (thus carrying favour with business) while appearing to the common voter to be ‘tough on migration’. Hot news but the statistical reality is somewhat different, as we show in this paper. The reality is that the results in Table 1 are an artefact of a change in the method used by the ABS to estimate net overseas migration 1 . While this change of method is described in ABS working papers, it is not mentioned in the standard ABS monthly publication, Overseas Arrivals and Departures (ABS 2003b). Misinterpretation of the results by those who are not ‘insiders’ is very likely as a consequence and, as cited above, misinterpretation has been widespread. In this paper, we present two alternative methods of estimation of migration trends in these years. Both show that recent changes in migration levels have been much more moderate than Table 1 indicates.