On the changing shape of the Australian mortality curve

Abstract

Over the course of the twentieth century, mortality rates in Australia have shown substantial improvements at all ages. The improvements which have taken place at different ages, however, have not occurred at a uniform pace, and as a result, the shapes of the national mortality curves have varied over time. The most noticeable change for males has been the development of an ‘accident hump’ in the late teens and early twenties mid-century, the growth of this ‘hump’ in the 1960s and 1970s, and its sudden disappearance, or transformation into a ‘bulge’, in the late 1980s. This paper examines the reasons for the disappearance of the male ‘accident hump’, and the changes in mortality by cause which have occurred over the decade to 1992 and influenced the level and shape of the whole mortality curve both for males and for females. Extrapolating the trends observed for the various cause-specific mortality rates obtains projected life tables for Australian males and females in the year 2002.